JNIM Advances Toward Ouagadougou as Burkina Faso’s Military Struggles to Hold Ground
The security situation in Burkina Faso has reached a critical point, with escalating attacks by the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), the Al-Qaeda-affiliated jihadist group, pushing the country’s military to the brink of collapse.
Zagazola Makama report that the insurgents have launched a series of coordinated offensives since March 13, capturing multiple military detachments and seizing large stockpiles of weapons. Analysts now warn that the Burkinabè capital, Ouagadougou, could soon be under siege.
In just four days, from March 13 to 16, JNIM has executed a precise and devastating series of attacks across Burkina Faso. The worst-hit areas include the East, Center-North, and Hauts-Bassins regions, where the country’s Defense and Security Forces (FDS) and their allied Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP) have suffered significant losses.
March 14-15: Foutouri, Tandjari, Yamba, and Partaga military detachments fell after intense attacks, with massive losses of personnel and weapons. March 15: In Séguédougou, over 30 FDS and VDP members were killed in a single assault. March 16: Around 37 troops were killed in Barsalogho, 26 in Watinom (near Tenkodogo), and 19 in Roussi. March 16 (Afternoon): A second wave of attacks targeted Séguénéga, followed by Lerghin and Boanghin villages near Ouargaye. Reports indicate multiple fatalities and injuries, with victims being transported to Ouargaye’s hospital.
At least 10 military bases have been completely overrun, allowing JNIM to seize thousands of rounds of ammunition, machine guns, rocket launchers, and assault rifles. Each successful assault strengthens the insurgents, while Burkina Faso’s military continues to lose ground and firepower at an alarming rate.
Ouagadougou Under Threat as Army Loses 60% of Its Firepower
Military sources suggest that since Captain Ibrahim Traoré took power in a September 2022 coup, the army has lost 60% of its weapons stockpile, either through battlefield defeats or direct seizures by JNIM.
A senior Burkinabè officer, speaking anonymously, described the situation bluntly:
“We are not just losing the war we are losing the country itself. The eastern, central, and northern regions are now lawless territories, with jihadist forces tightening their grip. Frequent incursions into Séguénéga and the March 16 double attack near Ouargaye suggest that Ouagadougou is now within JNIM’s operational reach. At this pace, the jihadists will march on Ouagadougou within weeks,” a security expert warned.
Traoré’s Government Under Pressure as Morale Plummets
When Ibrahim Traoré seized power, he promised to eradicate terrorism in 90 days. However, 18 months later, his administration faces its greatest security challenge yet. Instead of stabilizing, Burkina Faso has become the world’s most affected country by terrorism, with extremist groups advancing at an unprecedented rate.
The Burkinabè military, once seen as the backbone of the counter-terrorism fight, is now described as disorganized and demoralized. The government’s reliance on civilian militias (VDP) and Wegner forces has failed to turn the tide, and reports of desertions and mutinies are emerging. Despite the crisis, the military junta has remained silent, avoiding any acknowledgment of its losses. No official statement has been issued regarding the massive human and material losses suffered in recent days.
As Burkina Faso spirals deeper into chaos, experts warn that regional stability is at risk. If Ouagadougou falls, the security crisis could spill over into neighboring Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, and Benin.
The international community, which has largely been silent, is now being urged to act before it is too late. A security collapse in Burkina Faso could destabilize the entire Sahel and West Africa, posing a direct threat to regional and global security.
With JNIM gaining confidence and momentum, the question is no longer whether Ouagadougou is under threat but how soon the insurgents will reach its gates.
