Benin coup deepens West Africa’s democratic decline
By: Zagazola Makama
The sudden military takeover in the Benin Republic on Sunday, which saw President Patrice Talon deposed by soldiers led by Lt. Pascal Tigri, has once again consolidated fears of an expanding coup epidemic sweeping across West Africa.
The development mirrors trends from the situation in Guinea-Bissau, and raises urgent questions about the future of democratic governance across the continent.
According to initial reports, soldiers seized strategic installations in Cotonou and took control of the national broadcaster, where they announced the dissolution of state institutions and assumed full authority over the country. The action comes barely months to Benin’s scheduled presidential elections, echoing patterns of pre-election instability witnessed in other coup-prone states.
The Benin coup does not stand alone. It fits neatly into an emerging pattern outlined in the recent report on Guinea-Bissau on Nov. 26 following a disputed presidential election and rising political tensions, including the Oct. 11 coup in Madagascar.
With Benin now added to the list, West Africa is home to a growing bloc of junta-led states, including Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea and Chad. For years, analysts have warned that simmering tensions in Togo, Benin, Cameroon and Côte d’Ivoire could trigger similar breakdowns warnings that now appear validated.
The motivations behind these coups share striking similarities: poor governance and corruption, economic hardship and weakened state institutions, disputed electoral processes, deteriorating security situations, and increasing external influence in domestic political affairs.
In the case of Guinea-Bissau, the military justified its intervention by citing rising threats to national stability, contested election results, and deepening distrust in political actors. In Benin, the junta also referenced governance failures and security challenges as justification for its action. These recurring themes point to deeper systemic weaknesses that democratic institutions across the region have failed to address.
The Benin coup presents yet another test for ECOWAS and the African Union, institutions already stretched thin by the growing wave of unconstitutional changes of government. Previous responses sanctions, border closures, suspension of states have produced limited deterrence.
The widening rupture between states and regional bodies calls for a reassessment of current strategies. Experts argue that punitive measures alone cannot resolve deeply rooted governance failures. Instead, a dual strategy is needed: punishing unconstitutional takeovers while simultaneously supporting states to build credible democratic institutions, strengthen electoral systems, and address socio-economic grievances.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous democracy and a key anchor of regional stability, must draw important lessons from these developments. Nigeria faces similar vulnerabilities: external sabotage, religious disharmony, insecurity, economic distress, political mistrust, and contentious election cycles. Nigeria has for long been targeted for destabilization from sponsored propaganda to targeted campaigns.
In October, the Nigerian military successfully foiled a deadly, violent coup plot aimed at toppling the federal government and democracy. Dozens of officers who participated in the plot were arrested, while the military leadership reassured the President of their loyalty to safeguard democracy.
In early November 2025, Trump designated Nigeria as a “Country of Particular Concern” over alleged severe violations of religious freedom, claiming that “radical Islamists” were perpetrating a mass Genocide of Christians.
The speech ignited fierce debate across Nigeria. Many citizens, civil society actors, religious leaders and government officials reacted with alarm at what they considered a dangerous, oversimplified narrative about the country’s security crisis.
Nigeria is almost evenly split between Christians (largely in the south) and Muslims (largely in the north). The simplistic religious framing has also been exploited by opportunistic actors as extremists and bandits continue to carry out attacks on schools and churches to deepen divisions in the country.
With the 2027 general elections approaching, the country must strengthen its institutional resilience by ensuring credibility and transparency, addressing economic hardship and unemployment, improving security across all geopolitical zones, enhancing accountability in governance, and building public confidence in state institutions.
The coup in Benin is not merely a national event; it is part of a broader continental crisis threatening to roll back decades of democratic progress. The events in Benin and Guinea-Bissau show that democracy in West Africa stands at a crossroads. Regional bodies like ECOWAS and AU, political leaders, civil society and international partners must act decisively to prevent further democratic erosion and restore stability in affected states.
Zagazola Makama is a Counter Insurgency Expert and Security Analyst in the Lake Chad
